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Velociraptor (Film Universe)
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There are three distinct variations of Velociraptor which were cloned by InGen, not counting sexual dimorphism seen within each individual version. However, despite the surface level variations, each sub-species remains relatively similiar in terms of physical attributes. Each species is roughly 6 feet tall…

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Fallen Kingdom tracking towards a $130-$150 Million domestic opening

Tickets for the domestic release of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom on June 22nd officially went on sale yesterday, and today the first box office tracking has been released. While tracking numbers are never 100% accurate it does typically give us a good idea of what to expect. According to initial data from Deadline, Fallen Kingdom is tracking to a domestic opening of around $130-$150 Million.

While this tracking obviously is far less than the $208.8 million opening of 2015’s Jurassic World, which was an opening weekend record at the time, it would still be considered a huge opening for any blockbuster. While we await to see what Disney’s Incredibles 2 opens to on June 15th, these trackings would give it the 3rd or 4th biggest opening of the year so far behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257.7 million), Black Panther ($202.0 million) and potentially Incredibles 2.

Something we must all keep in mind when it comes to tracking is that the potential is there for it to be way off. In 2015, the initial tracking numbers for Jurassic World were predicting an opening weekend of around $100 million and when the film was released it more than doubled that number. What a franchise like Jurassic thrives on most is walk-up ticket purchases, unlike a Star Wars or Marvel movie that typically do massive pre-sales. Walk-ups can really hurt tracking predictions because that is more based on pre-sale ticket purchases. That is not to say Fallen Kingdom will do twice as much as the tracking number, but it is a variable worth watching.

It also should be noted that a potential opening weekend of $130-$150 Million should not be considered a disappointment at all even though it will be less than Jurassic World’s opening. It still has a chance to claim the 2018 Summer opening weekend crown with those numbers (if you count Avengers: Infinity War as a Spring movie since it came out in April) and be the highest grossing movie of the Summer. Fallen Kingdom would still be a success, even if the opening weekend, domestic and worldwide numbers come in under what Jurassic World did. Our early guess based on these tracking numbers is that Fallen Kingdom might do more than $400 million domestically total and about $900 million-$1.2 billion worldwide, which would be a massive box office run for any movie, including a major franchise like Jurassic.

Domestically is not the only place where Fallen Kingdom is expected to do big numbers, Gavin Feng, who covers the Chinese Box Office is reporting that the film is tracking to an opening weekend in China of $105 million over three days. That would surpass the three day opening of $67.19 million for Jurassic World back in 2015. Fallen Kingdom opens in China on June 15th.


What do you think of the initial domestic opening tracking numbers? Does this seem lower, higher or about what you expected? How close do you think the actual opening weekend numbers might be to these tracking numbers? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below and on our forums.

Source: Deadline, Gavin Feng on Twitter

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13 thoughts on “Fallen Kingdom tracking towards a $130-$150 Million domestic opening

  1. I love looking at box office numbers. It’s like a race to a finish line. Here’s hoping Fallen Kingdom can exceed expectations for the Franchise once again.

  2. I expect this film to make a lot less than Jurassic World when all is said and done, just like I expect Jurassic World 3 to make far less than Fallen Kingdom. It’s just the nature of the game.

    Jurassic World had nostalgia and a 14 year gap between films to boost sales, Fallen Kingdom doesn’t. Thus far, the reception for Fallen Kingdom has been mixed at best and it’s also riding the back of a film that had mixed reception. IF the film is one of quality, it might be lucky enough to receive a boost in ticket sales the following weekend, followed by steady sales thereafter. If the film receives mixed reviews from both audiences and critics, the potential for a steady to moderate drop is more likely. I don’t even want to consider that the film might receive predominantly negative reviews… because that would be terrible. Despite my apprehension for FK, I don’t think that will happen, so I won’t dwell on that.

    Note: As someone who wants the film to be good and succeed (if it’s good), I’ll never forget seeing trailer number one on two separate occasions and hearing people (just a few here and there) chuckling BOTH times as soon as it ended and the rest of the audience having no reaction at all (and trust me, as a fan who didn’t like the first trailer, I was especially curious to see how others responded, and paid attention). Yes, those two observations alone don’t really mean anything and cannot possibly gauge the overall reception for the film, but man were they an incredibly stark contrast to World’s trailer response. I still think using the volcanic eruption as the focal point of the first trailer was a mistake. I know later trailers rectified this, but the first trailers impression is so important, and they failed in that department. On the other hand, because they did go with the volcanic eruption, they should have stood by that and made zero mention of an off-island story, so when audiences went to see the film, word of mouth would spread that *gasp* there were HUGE surprises in store because the marketing didn’t spoil everything (I’m still in awe at how much has been spoiled).

    1. Anytime I have seen the trailer with a group of people in the theater I hear people saying that they want to see it.

  3. So I have been watching the Star Wars news bit today… My, my. Star Wars has been murdered.

    It is essential that the fan base does not allow Jurassic Park/World to suffer the same fate. Bring Laura Dern back for the third film, sure. But DON’T make it about gender politics like she seems to hint at wanting to focus on.

    1. Those are amazing numbers, especially from China. I think JW:FK will actually make more than the projections because of the extreme disappointment with Solo. People are ready for the next big event movies.

    2. Its up to Trevorrow and his team to make sure Jurassic doesn’t suffer the same fate as Star Wars. Have a clear vision and respect the fans. That should be number 1 priority.

      1. People are getting sick and tired of the SJW, political correctness movement ruining everything they touch. Hopefully Trevorrow is one of them.

  4. In general I do not bother how well a movie does at the box office. All I want is a good movie.
    It should have an original concept and tell an innovative story. Being part of a franchise it should add something new that enriches the saga. Innovative movies don’t necessarily break the record of ticked sales.

    In fact you have to water down everything a bit to please a very large audience. You have to please not only several age groups but also people with very different mindsets. It is about finding the highest common denominator, or in other words: a movie for everyone.

    This said, I would rather prefer a lower entry for Fallen Kingdom in the box office if on the other hand this movie is actually better than its precesessor. I have good hopes for Bayona and stopped watching trailers and spots after the 2nd official trailer because I really didn’t want to get too much spoilers.

    Let’s c if Conolly and Trevorrow were able to set up a far better script for Fallen Kingdom than for Jurassic World but of course I am afraid that the Jurassic Franchise finally reached the monster movie genre with pseudo-dinosaurs acting as good and evil characters and not as animals.

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